2022年，隨著通貨膨脹飆升，美聯儲提高利率以防止工資螺旋式上升。

現在，隨著失業率上升，美聯儲發出了一個信號，即愿意降低利率以阻止裁員的惡性循環，即使這意味著通脹會暫時上升。

美聯儲主席鮑威爾在上周三新聞發布會的開場白中宣布，失業率的意外上升可能促使美聯儲在當前經濟增長的情況下首次降息。

隨后，他在回答記者提問時多次重復了這一信息。

他在為期兩天的政策會議后表示，雖然美聯儲在降息之前要等待確保通脹戰爭取得勝利，但“就業市場意外疲軟可能也需要政策回應。”

鮑威爾表示，他目前沒有看到就業市場出現任何裂縫，但一些經濟學家并不那么樂觀。

他們指出，美國多州失業率大幅上升，臨時工持續減少、工作時間縮短。

無論如何，鮑威爾和他的同事們都清楚，他們所認為的穩定的勞動力市場可能很快就會變質。

從歷史上看，失業率一旦開始攀升，就會因為企業紛紛宣布裁員而大幅上升。

如果勞動力市場過度疲軟，鮑威爾可能會降低利率。

前美聯儲經濟學家溫迪·埃德爾伯格表示，美聯儲“不希望失業率上升”。

她表示，鮑威爾可能會為寬松政策敞開大門，因為通脹“非常接近”美聯儲2%的目標。

她補充說，美聯儲不必通過打擊勞動力市場來控制物價上漲，而是可以選擇在未來幾年忍受通脹略高的情況。

鮑威爾表示：“我們堅信，隨著時間的推移，通脹率將降至2%。”

這對于尋求連任的拜登來說是個好消息。

選民已經對他對經濟的處理感到悲觀。

11 月大選前失業率急劇上升只會加劇這種看法。

這對于投資者來說也是個好消息。

隨著通脹從兩年前的極高水平回落，美聯儲現在可以為經濟乃至金融市場提供更多支持。

全球資產管理公司 Point72 的經濟學家兼策略師索菲亞·德羅索斯 (Sophia Drossos) 周五表示：

“各國央行正在采取一些措施來幫助實現其任務中的經濟增長，特別是在美國，這對風險資產非常有利。”

勞動力市場似乎正在放緩

Federal Reserve officials' latest economic forecasts show they expect unemployment to rise this year, but not by much. Policymakers expect the unemployment rate to rise to an average of 4% by the final quarter of 2024, from a two-year high of 3.9% in February.

Powell said the Fed recognized the risk that a large number of layoffs could lead to a "fairly rapid rise" in unemployment as companies curb hiring. But he added that he doesn't think that will happen, especially since jobless claims are "very low."

However, some economists do see signs of a job market slowdown. According to calculations by Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, unemployment rates in 20 states have risen significantly enough to trigger the so-called "Sam's Rule."

The Sahm Rule, proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, applies to the national economy, not individual states. Under this rule, when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage point or more relative to the previous 12-month low, it signals the onset of a recession.

But that has not happened yet, and the rule will only take effect when the U.S. unemployment rate rises above 4%. Pingle is one of the fewer analysts who still predict a U.S. recession this year. States with sharp increases in unemployment include New York, California and the political swing states of Arizona and Wisconsin.

Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, sees the Sam rule from another perspective, saying it has been triggered by certain categories of workers, including those with a high school degree or less. of workers, as well as those approaching retirement, "the unemployment rate is increasingly sending warning signs." He also predicted a recession in 2024.

Another potential sign of a softening labor market is that many Americans are working fewer hours. Data compiled by payroll management company ADP show that as a group, hourly workers are working fewer hours than before the pandemic.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said it's unclear whether workers are voluntarily reducing their hours or whether companies are cutting back on employees' hours. Whatever the reason, the reduction in weekly working hours meant that for many workers their weekly wages were not keeping pace with inflation, she said.

San Francisco Fed President Daly said in Washington last month that the danger of a damaging downturn in the job market seemed remote. But she also warned:

"Given the historically rapid pace of labor market shifts, this is a risk we must keep in mind."

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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