• 投資者是“做多比特幣和做空礦工”，因為將資金投入比特幣現貨 ETF 比承擔在即將到來的比特幣減半之前持有礦商可能產生的風險更安全。

• 礦業公司需要證明他們能夠產生強勁的回報，以說服投資者重新投資他們的股票。

• 歷史模式表明，礦業股在減半后可能會上漲，而交易費用、并購和其他策略可能會幫助它們保持盈利。

加密貨幣社區對比特幣 {{BTC}} 周二創下歷史新高議論紛紛。

但在比特幣生態系統中發揮重要作用的礦商股價未能復制令人眼花繚亂的漲勢，因為投資者擔心所謂的減半即將帶來的風險，而是將資金投入現貨比特幣 ETF。

閱讀更多：什么是比特幣減半？

從歷史上看，比特幣礦工被視為比特幣價格的代理，但當比特幣上漲時，他們的回報會更高。

由于限制而無法從交易所購買比特幣的世界各地投資者可以購買礦業股票以獲得投資機會。

這有助于推動 2021 年上一個牛市周期的大幅反彈。

毫不奇怪，這些股票在隨后的熊市中大幅下跌，一些知名礦商也申請破產。

隨著該行業走出殘酷的加密貨幣冬天，礦工們解決了他們的問題，人們希望他們的股價能夠在比特幣上漲的情況下回升。

但還發生了其他事情：比特幣的價格今年上漲了約 54%，剛剛觸及 69,000 美元以上的歷史新高，而追蹤公開交易礦工表現的基金 Valkyrie 比特幣礦工 ETF (WGMI) 則下跌了約 21% 。

令人著迷的是，#BTC 距離 ATH 僅 1%，而 #bitcoin 礦業股票在上一個周期中沒有接近 ATH。自 2021 年 11 月 8 日以來的瘋狂上漲 pic.twitter.com/hk9xtjqAwR

— 沃爾夫·趙 (@WolfieZhao) 2024 年 3 月 5 日

比特幣和礦業股之間的這種脫節給投資者帶來了沉重的提醒：這次牛市是不同的。

這一次，比特幣上漲的主要推動力是美國證券交易委員會今年批準了現貨比特幣交易所交易基金

就像礦商股票一樣，這些 ETF 在證券交易所進行交易——幾乎任何美國經紀賬戶都可以訪問。

這使得投資者能夠更直接地接觸數字資產，而無需通過加密貨幣交易所的單獨賬戶購買它們。

這也確保了他們可以持有比特幣，而不必讓他們的投資組合面臨礦業股票的波動性及其公司風險。

"With the approval of Bitcoin ETF products, investors can now access direct exposure to bitcoin price. Prior to the approval of the ETF, public mining stocks were one of the only traditional vehicles through which investors could get exposure to bitcoin price appreciation," Galaxy's mining analysts, led by Brandon Bailey, wrote in a research note.

It's possible that retail investors may still buy into mining stocks, but for institutional players – the ones that move the needle in most cases – short-selling mining stocks became the preferred trade. "Institutions are seemingly more likely in the short run to go long the Bitcoin ETFs and short mining stocks, which we've seen start to play out since the beginning of 2024," the report added.

Unless the miners can show strong positive cash flow generation, investors will likely shy away from funding some miners, posing "challenges in the equity market for lower margin, higher cost operators with weaker track records for return on capital," the analysts said.

Bitcoin halving uncertainty

Another roadblock for mining stocks, this time around, is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, which will ramp up the competition for the miners. The halving is part of the Bitcoin network's code to reduce inflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency. Miners are rewarded bitcoin for running the network, but every four years, a halving cuts that reward in half.

Read CoinDesk's halving coverage here.

Bitcoin soared after the last halving in May 2020, and miners joined in. At the time, there weren't many large-scale miners. This time around, though, the market is crowded with many large-scale miners, who will compete for bitcoin rewards that will be cut to 3.125 from 6.25 bitcoin. On top of that, the difficulty of mining a block has also risen to an all-time high, which will make things even tougher post-halving.

This poses a significant uncertainty for investors in mining stocks. "Uncertainty prevails regarding which miners will weather the storm and survive the impending revenue halving," George Kikvadze, executive vice chairman of Bitfury Group, wrote in a blog post.

"Consequently, investors seek tangible reassurances amidst this uncertainty and are diverting capital to the perceived safety of Bitcoin ETFs," he added.

'Temporary setback'

So, is there any silver lining for the miners?

Galaxy's analysts predict that there are few positive trends that can help the miners. One of them is transaction fees, which could be the "biggest wildcard" for mining revenue in 2024. As fees generated by Ordinals – NFT-like assets recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain – have recently helped miners' revenue, and that could help them stay afloat post-halving.

“雖然我們可能預計算力會在減半后下降（因為實力較弱的礦工關閉其運營），但同期費用的大幅上漲可能會將收入提高到足夠高的水平，從而使效率較低的礦工能夠繼續以利潤進行挖礦，否則這些礦工將無利可圖，”分析師寫道。

其他一些也可以幫助礦工的選擇包括對沖電力成本以及使用開采的比特幣來對沖價格波動。

分析師還預測，今年并購可能會增加，因為規模較小、效率較低的礦商可能需要被規模較大的礦商收購才能在競爭中生存。

閱讀更多：比特幣減半將釋放礦工的達爾文主義

與此同時，Bitfury 的 Kikvadze 表示，歷史先例表明，盡管市場存在擔憂，但礦商將在減半后“蓬勃發展”。

他研究了 2020 年 5 月減半期間公開交易的礦商股票的表現，結果顯示“礦商在減半前的幾個月表現不佳或與比特幣持平，但在隨后的‘比特幣夏季’牛市中表現優于比特幣。 ”

到目前為止，在減半事件發生之前，礦商的表現落后于比特幣的價格。

如果歷史屬實，那么礦業股可能有機會在減半事件后受到追捧，而比特幣價格上漲超過歷史高點也可能有所幫助。

“目前公開交易的比特幣礦商的平靜是暫時的挫折，這是在減半事件中預計到的。隨著塵埃落定，強大的礦商將大放異彩，投資者將涌向該行業，”基克瓦澤寫道。

閱讀更多：下一次比特幣減半會是另一個炒作周期嗎？

熱點：比特幣 特幣 歷史 新高